When it comes to the top national economies globally, although the order may shift around slightly from one year to the next, the key players are usually the same. At the top of the list is the United States of America, which according to Investopedia, has been at the head of the table going all the way back to 1871. However, as has been the case for a good few years now, China is gaining on the U.S., with some even claiming that China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world’s Number 1 economy.
Nonetheless, going by nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars alone, the U.S. maintains its spot followed by China and Japan. In this post we take a look at the world’s top economies according to our Consensus Forecasts for 2019 nominal GDP. We also discuss how the top economies change when looking at GDP per capita along with a highlight on emerging markets and their potential to catch up to the big players in the not too distant future
India is projected to overtake both the UK by 2020 to become the fifth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of USD 2.9 trillion having overtaken the French economy in 2018.
From 2003 to 2007, India experienced high growth rates of around 9% annually before moderating in 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis. In the following years, India began to see growth slow due to a plunging rupee, a persistently high current account balance and slow industry growth. This was exacerbated by the U.S.’ decision to cut back on quantitative easing, as investors began to rapidly pull money out of India. However, the economy has since bounced back as the stock market has boomed and the current account deficit has decreased. India’s economy recently surpassed China’s to become the world’s fastest growing large economy. We forecast India’s growth at 7.4% FY 2019.